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President:
Patrick Belton
Director of Studies:
Robert Kokta
National Director:
Justin Abold
Vice President:
John Ciorciari
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Greater Middle East Initiative, Russian Elections,
Syria, and PA
Patrick Belton for the Democracy Program
In this installment of our Global Democracy Briefings, Patrick Belton
reviews the Greater Middle East Initiative, the drafting and approval of an
interim Iraqi constitution, democracy protest in Syria, and the weekend's
Russian elections. Last week’s briefing presented a post-mortem following the
February 20th elections in Iran.
TOP TOPIC
- The administration is
backing
down on its Greater Middle
East Initiative, after a massive diplomatic effort led by Saudi
Arabia and Egypt to portray the initiative as neocolonial meddling by
the United States in the internal affairs of sovereign Arab states. The
process collapsed in the aftermath of the leak of a draft of the
proposal two weeks ago to the London-based Arabic newspaper Al Hayat,
which precipitated the Saudi and Egyptian diplomatic campaign to oppose
it. Drafted by the administration with minimal involvement from the
State Department, the Initiative was to draw on the models of the
Helsinki Accords and the Marshall Plan to create and fund institutions
to promote democracy in the region and hasten reforms in governance, education,
the economy, technology, development and the role of women.
Other
topics today include: More on the Greater Middle East initiative;
Greater budgetary support for National Endowment for Democracy; Russia's
coming elections; Developments in the Palestinian Authority.
America's
Greater Middle East Initiative
- In other diplomatic
maneuverings in response to and attempting to circumvent the Initiative,
King ‘Abdullah and President Mubarak both made calls on President Chirac
this week at the Elysee, and France and Germany have announced their
positions against the initiative and their intention to formulate an alternative;
officials from the two countries called on the European Union to draft a
"distinct and complementary" approach to prevent "the
traps of a global approach ignoring national characteristics and
stigmatizing Islam as incompatible with what is modern."
- Jordan and Egypt also
for their part submitted an alternative plan to an Arab ministerial on
Wednesday, in an advance of an Arab League summit March 29 and 30 in
Tunis which is expected to reach a unanimous stance against the US initiative. After his Egyptian counterpart Atef
Obeid travelled to Kuwait City to call on him this week, KuwaitÕs PM Sheikh Sabah said
of the initiative "Kuwait has not received anything and does
not want to receive anything."
- In other diplomatic
moves by Egypt against the initiative, President Mubarak convened a
two-day conference for this weekend in Alexandria to formulate an Arab
alternative. Mubarak threatened that the result of rapid democratization
in the Arab world would be a "vortex of violence and anarchy,"
and that a gradual reform plan should be implemented instead. Hesham
Kassem, president of the Egyptian Organization of Human Rights, said NGOs in Egypt had not been informed about or invited
to the meeting, which he suspected was a government-staged event to
deflect pressure for reform.
- Turkey has similarly
balked, with FM ‘Abdullah Gul saying Turkey
"would not be the U.S.’s
subcontractor" although it was willing to contemplate cooperative
actions.
- In his meeting with
Powelll, Jordanian Foreign Minister Muasher reportedly threatened to
make rejection of the U.S. plan the centerpiece
of the Arab summit in Tunis, while offering to formulate an Arab
alternative if it was withdrawn. Muasher says that in response he was
assured by Powell that the United States would withdraw the plan from
the agenda of the G-8 summit in Sea Island.
- The administration's
democracy initiative also met with distrust from Arab liberals, who were
equally wary of the United States's intentions and of their own
governments’ rationales for rejecting the initiative. Azmi
Bishara, an Arab-Israeli MK, said "the U.S. attempt to dress up its policy of hegemony in the
guise of democracy must not discourage Arab democratic forces from
pressing for democracy.... citizenship rights, equality before law,
judicial independence, civic liberties and women rights are democratic
principles that must not be abandoned just because American propaganda
is using all of the above for its own purposes."
- A slightly different
response was that of former Jordanian ambassador to the UN Hasan Abu Nimah, who said he mistrusts the U.S. initiative because he doesn't believe the United
States is actually willing to sacrifice its undemocratic allies in the
Arab world to democratically-elected governments with anti-American
policies. Nimah
wrote: "Even if Washington would require such [democratic]
changes, how could they be achieved? And if achieved, how could
Washington cope with elected governments which will definitely be far
more hostile to the US than the current
ones?" But on the other hand, he asked, "Does anyone truly
expect any of the many self-styled leaders in the region who claim that
reform should start from within to step down and allow the people to
democratically elect a leader? "
Middle
Eastern Report
- An interim Iraqi
constitution was adopted on Monday by the Iraqi Interim Governing
Council, and the document includes substantial civil and women's rights
protections, provisions for separation of powers and a highly independent
judiciary, and a fair amount of federalism, along with electoral
mechanisms designed to produce moderate leaders who have appeal beyond
their own community. The text of the interim basic law is available on the CPA's website. George Washington University's Nathan
Brown has released an article-by-article commentary
on the text as well as the drafting process, and Noah Feldman, a
consultant to the constitution's drafters, analyzes
the document as well in an interview with the Associated Press.
- In general, during
the drafting Kurds pushed for greater federalism, while Shi'i urged
greater majoritarian democracy. A last-minute dispute arose between
Shi'i, who wanted a collective presidency of five persons in which three
would be Shi'i and the other two include a Kurd and a Sunni, and Kurds,
who sought to make the permanent constitution's approval conditional on
a veto which could be exercised by two-thirds votes within three
provinces. (The Kurds control three northern provinces, Dohuk,
Suleimaniyeh, and Arbil). The veto clause was adopted, as well as a
smaller presidency of one president and two deputies who act by
consensus. Sistani gave his support to the interim constitution when
Shi'i members of the council convinced him that wrangling over details
in the document was likely to postpone the transfer of sovereignty from
the U.S.-led coalition to an Iraqi interim
government on June 30. (For further discussion of issues surrounding the
drafting process, see reports by the
International Crisis Group and the Christian
Science Monitor ).
- Syria experienced a
brief, rare protest against the police state on Monday outside the
parliament building in Damascus. Organizer Aktham
Naisse, who leads the Committees for the Defense of Democratic
Liberties and Human Rights in Syria, said Monday's sit-in outside parliament
was a success even though it was quickly suppressed by police,
protesters were detained, and the demonstrators' banner, reading
"Freedom for Prisoners of Opinion and Conscience," quickly
torn up by police.
- Naisse had previously
circulated a petition urging an end to emergency laws, release for
political detainees and permission for exiles to return. He plans to
give the petition to the Ba'athist authorities on March 17, the
anniversary of mass arrests in 1992 under Assad's father, Hafez Assad.
"Organizing the petition was the first step. The sit-in was the
second step. March 17 will be the third step. Sooner or later our hopes
and aspirations will be fulfilled," said Mr Naisse.
Russia's
Coming Elections
- Russia’s
"managed democracy" will hold elections on Sunday. Though the
outcome is not in doubt, if less than half the voters turn up, an
embarrassing run-off could result for Mr Putin. Only 56 percent of
eligible voters cast ballots during parliamentary elections in December,
although presidential races typically draw more voters. In response to
this concern and, perhaps, to presidential pressure as well, all of
Moscow’s religious leaders have called
on their communities to participate in elections. Putin himself appeared
on television for an address calling on Russians to vote, and the
Russian press announced that Cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri would vote from
the international space station by proxy.
- There are reports the
government may alter the turnout tally if necessary to avoid the
embarrassment of a run-off, and its implication of a reduced mandate for
Mr Putin: left-leaning nationalist politician Sergei Glazyev published
an open letter to Putin in Novaya Gazeta on Thursday, saying
local officials are under pressure to ensure a high turnout and falsify
ballots in Putin's favor; on Wednesday, Glazyev alleged some regional
leaders had held meetings with local elections officials to make certain
70 percent to 75 percent of all votes cast would be for Putin.
- Ms Khakamada is campaigning
against Putin as a "Soviet man," but even with internet
access, it has not been easy for her or other opponents of Mr Putin to
broadcast that message in a nation of 145 million which reaches across
11 time zones, where a third of the population remains below the poverty
line, and all television channels in the control of the Kremlin.
- Apart from the deputy
speaker, most leaders of the electoral opposition during December’s
parliamentary elections have gone their separate ways: Boris Nemtsov is working for a bank; Anatoly Chubais, a pivotal figure in
for mid-1990s privatisation, returned to his job of heading the
electricity monopoly, Unified Energy Systems.
- Nemtsov comments,
on genuine popular support for Putin, "As long as the Russian
economy continues to grow by 7 per cent a year and living standards are
improving, you can't convince people that they would be better off
without Putin.... Unfortunately, the popular demand for democracy in
Russia is very weak at the moment. Perhaps we need time to go through
this period of authoritarianism to appreciate the value of
freedom."
- A solitary protest
against the "managed" nature of the weekend's elections has
been a demonstration
in Pushkin Square Wednesday evening by Young Yabloko, the Union of
Communist Youth, the youth movement of the Union of Right Forces, and
the National Bolshevik Party, who united in calling for Russians to
abstain from voting in protest, in a demonstration which was permitted
to proceed by the city's central district administration.
Greater
Budgetary Support For N.E.D.
- The bipartisan National
Endowment for Democracy, established by congressional mandate in 1983
and operated independently of the U.S.
government, will receive a doubled appropriation under the budget
proposal submitted to Congress. The additional $40 million in democracy promotion
funding will go toward programs in the Middle East. The FY 1995 budget also calls for $150 million for the
Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), which received $89 million in
FY 2004, $90 million in FY
2003, and $29 million in FY 2002. The National
Endowment for Democracy is noteworthy for receiving rare support from
both left and right of political spectrum, with prominent members of
both parties, labor, management, and a variety of civil society
organizations represented on the organization’s board.
- The National
Endowment for Democracy has already become quite active in Afghanistan,
Iraq, and elsewhere in the Middle East. At present, NED
grants are supporting the activities of Iranian dissidents ($75,000 in 2002),
human rights and international business groups in Egypt ($656,000) and
women's rights groups in Jordan ($209,000). An additional series of
grants totaling $680,000 in 2002 have gone to groups in Afghanistan
supporting freedom of the press, human rights, independent political
parties and equal political representation for women and minority
groups; similar programs are underway at the moment in Iraq.
The
Palestinian Authority
Fateh member Rouhi Fatouh,
a close Arafat ally, won the seat easily in balloting on Wednesday. More
interestingly, Hassan Kharisha, an independent, won the vice-chairman seat
against Fateh candidate Muhammad el Hourani. Fateh holds 63 out of 83 seats
on the council. Legislative sources told
the Jerusalem Times that council members wanted to send Fateh leaders a
message about their independence. The speaker is the Palestinian official
who, in the event of Arafat's death, would succeed to the presidency for 60
days until general elections could be held. Other duties concern routine
parliamentary management, and less frequently exercised constitutional
responsibilities lie in keeping the government in check.
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